Strategy Analytics has a pay-for report (it's the day for 'em) looking at projected virtual world takeup over the next ten years. 
This study, titled "Market Forecasts for Virtual World Experiences," predicts that 22 percent of global broadband users will register for one or more virtual worlds over the next 10 years. This will expand the virtual world market to one billion registrants, with roughly an eight billion dollar services opportunity.
... says GameDaily, who have presumably bought a copy. Of course, registering for and actually using are two entirely different things, but with the number of virtual worlds in development, this chart is probably not a massive surprise...
(via Kotaku)
Charts like this one (and this one in particular) are silly.
The asymptotic curve is symptomatic of the author(s) view that the space doesn't evolve to reach new customers. This basically says "the current type of product currently appeals to 22% of people, and eventually you'll reach them all".
One could have (and many did) say the same thing about video games, but of course things like casual games, the Wii, MMOs and social games are all technical innovations that break the interpolation/forecast.
I have to think that it's *way* higher in a 10 year timeframe, but of course we won't recognize what a virtual world is and teh boundaries will be blurry.
i.e. does PMOG count? :-)
Kim
Posted by: Kim | June 05, 2008 at 18:27